GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: 3-Year Uptrend in the Balance (28/08/15)

The British Pound is treading water against the Japanese Yen as prices consolidate losses having dropped to the lowest level in nearly four months. Near-term support is in the 184.42-98 area, marked by the July 8 low and the 100% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary on a daily closing basis initially targets the 123.6% level at 181.86. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 76.4% Fib at 186.98 sees the next upside boundary at 188.56, the 61.8% retracement.

Critically, current support is also the site of a major long-term trend line (not shown) guiding the dominant rising trend since June 2012. With the final days of August fast-approaching, even a near-term break of immediate support could thus double as a potentially tectonic trend shift opening the door for a sustained downward reversal.

As it stands, the absence of an actionable trade setup argues against taking a position on either the long or short side. We will carefully monitor positioning for confirmation of the larger trend reversal however, looking to enter short once an opportunity presents itself.


GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: 3-Year Uptrend in the Balance